Reese Kaplan -- If 2022 Ever Begins, Who's in the Starting Rotation?

By now you've all heard that the opposing sides are meeting every day this week to try to resolve the open issues that will lead to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  While I am far from what anyone would ever confuse with an optimist, it does get my wheels spinning about things the Mets need to do for the 2022 season to take place.  

Towards that end I keep coming back to the subject of pitching as I recall correctly the Good Ship Bedpan for the number of pitchers and position players who fell off the playing field due to health issues.

Right now going into the season everyone is salivating over what both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer will be like for opposing hitters on back-to-back nights.  There's no need to rehash the statistics of what these two giant hurlers have done during their professional careers.  The issue of talent is never going to cross anyone's minds about either of them.

However, both have some questions about health and durability that the club can't take for granted.  In 2021 deGrom made just 15 starts that you need to look at twice to belive they actually happened at the major league level.  He finished the season with 7-2 record and a 1.08 ERA.  If he'd logged enough innings, Hall of Famer Bob Gibson would have had to give up his all-time single season record in that regard as he "only" achieved a 1.12 ERA back in 1968.  

The other number that jumps off the page is his strikeout ability with 14.3 per 9 IP as compared to just 1.1 walks over the same interval.  That makes for a ratio of strikeouts-to-walks of an other worldly 13.27.

By comparison, Scherzer looked a bit more durable but positively "ordinary" with a 15-4 combined record for the Nationals and Dodgers, a 2.50 combined ERA a 6.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The encouraging sign is his 7-0 record for the Dodgers with a sub-2.00 ERA and even better strikeout performance.  However, he logged 30 starts which is 2-5 fewer than most regular starters aggregate in the course of a season.  

Behind them the Mets have a hopefully reborn Carlos Carrasco.  There's no way to describe his abbreviated season due to injury other than ugly.  His career shows he's a much better pitcher with a mark of 88-73 for Cleveland with a highly respectable WHIP of under 1.20 and averaging 9.5 strikeouts per 9 IP.  If he can achieve that level of performance for the Mets, then the deal sending infielders and pitching prospects for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco will turn into a late positive for the Mets.

If you ever want to get Mets fans into a heated debate, bring up the subject of starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.  He was an All Star representative for the Mets last season based upon a first half that was dominant.  He pitched 13 starts in which he allowed 2 or fewer runs and his trip to the mid-summer classic was well deserved based upon an ERA of just 2.66.  Then came part two in which he saw his ERA for the year shoot up to 4.47 after completing 29 starts to approach what Scherzer did.  

However, bear in mind his health history where from 2018, 2019 and 2020 he COMBINED for just 22 starts, so the idea of losing steam on his highest ever start total since 2015 does seem to make some sense.  It's obvious he's got a quality arm.  Whether or not he can maintain health to me is a much bigger problem than his ability.  

Now is where it starts to get hazy and uncertain.  Who is your fifth starter?  Do you hand it over to the rushed prospect Tylor Megill whose 4.52 ending ERA was worse than Walker's?  Then there's David Peterson who is recovering from a fractured foot and horrific pitching stats prior to that surgery taking place.  

Also in the mix is 2021 acquisition Jordan Yamamoto who missed a lot of time due to injury.  His history is uneven with the Marlins after four good lower level minor league years from 2016 through 2019.  In the majors he's been pounded to a 6.05 ERA.  

San Diego lefty Joey Lucchesi went down for Tommy John surgery and is likely done for 2022 as well.  Late acquisition Trevor Williams did make three starts and finished with a 3.06 ERA.  Aside from one decent year in 2018 he's been largely an afterthought. Then we finally saw perennially injured southpaw Thomas Szapucki in 2021 for less than 4 innings of highly forgettable work.

So if there is a 2022 season taking place it would seem that GM Billy Eppler is going to have to look at both free agents and trade possibilities to bring in a higher level of pitcher to be part of the starting five.  It's understandable to rely on one or more of these guys as spot starters for injury or doubleheaders, but none has shown enough to feel confident that they are deserving to be seen every 5th day.  

Which open market pitchers should be considered is a story for another day, but it would seem that talent must be acquired from outside the organization for the club to feel more secure about its competitiveness for 2022.