Tom Brennan - Francisco Alvarez and Juan Soto - Out of the Same Mold?

                                                                   PC: Ed Delany 

NO, I'M NOT BACK, OK?  ANYWAY...

I just couldn't help but want to write about "the guy"...

I recently wrote the following:

"Francisco Alvarez?  Gosh darn, though, his first two AA games?  A huge 3 run blast, a double that is a HR in Citifield, another double to the base of the wall in right center, and an absolute Piazza rocket just to the right of center that, if the stands didn't intrude, might have gone 475 feet."  

"See you THIS YEAR in Queens, Francisco."

Oh, I forgot - he hit his 3rd HR in 3 games Tuesday night, a 3 run shot, giving him 7 RBIs in 3 games, including 2 doubles 3 HRs and a single.  He is ready to skip AAA and go directly to AAAA.

Some folks automatically think like Mets fans have been conditioned to think - as in "let's not rush the kid, see you in 2024, etc."

To which I reply - Poppycock.

This guy is not out of the normal mold.  Yes, we've never had any hitters we could rush up, because all came out of the "normal mold."  Not Francisco.

Neither was Juan Soto.

Juan Soto tore up the lower minors at 18, then tore up A ball for 31 game and AA for all of 8 games at age 19 - then, voila!

He became a Washington Nationals major league slugger instantaneously.

The truly great hitters do stuff like that.

I think Francisco is one of those hitters.  60 years, and we finally got one.

Yes, he didn't hit as well in 2021 as Soto did at age 18 - but don't forget the Brooklyn effect, the place where fly balls go to die.

Here are excerpts of an article I did several months ago on Alvarez, focusing on the Brooklyn hitter-inhibiting effect, and adjusting for it:

I've spoken quite often in these columns about the downward drag created by playing home games in Brooklyn.

Francisco Alvarez, the 19 year old wunderkind, has played most of his season in Brooklyn.

How is Francisco hitting?  Thru last Tuesday, as I write this:

At home, overall, .228/.352/.503.

On the road, which is probably a far more accurate barometer of his hitting acumen:

.313/.418/.591.  

Incredible numbers on the road.  Kind of what you'd expect from someone like, say, Hall of Fame catcher Mike Piazza.

Remembering that most hitters hit better at home than on the road - except in gale-force Brooklyn.  

Imagine what his #'s would look like if he played in a friendly-to-hitters home park, not one hostile to hitters??

And not just him.  One more - Ronny Mauricio has to be thrilled to be out of Brooklyn, starting out strongly in AA since his recent promo.  What are his overall home/away slash lines in 2021?

Home?  .218/.269/.355

Road?  .270/.320/.536

Ah, heck, I'll give you one more:

Luke Ritter, all season in purgatory - err, I mean Brooklyn:

Home?  .200/.292/.240

Road?  .252/.325/.561

Brooklyn is clearly anathema to hitters.

So, when looking at Alvarez, I decided I would just double his road numbers for a better read on his offensive prowess.

If you doubled his road numbers, you'd get:

.313/.418/.591...and...

352 at bats, 20 doubles, 26 HRs, and 76 RBIs.

Over 500 at bats at that pace, 30 doubles, 37 HRs, 110 RBIs.

You know, Piazza stuff.  I think Piazza II, otherwise known as Francisco the Great, is in advanced gestation and may show up in Citifield with his very loud bat late in 2022.  

So tell me - does this give you another perspective on Alvarez's lethality?

Alvarez needs to be strong enough, catching-wise, clearly.  Soto could just go and play defense in the outfield, a less integral defensive position.

But if Alvarez's first 39 games this year are anything like his first 2 have been, see you - SOON - in Queens, Francisco.

Also, Baty and Mauricio are off to hot AA starts.  Binghamton is the fun place to be in 2022. While the trio are still there.

DELIGHTED:  Let me say that I am DELIGHTED about one minor leaguer in the early going...one I've called out in prior seasons for striking out way too much in the past...Sherveyn Newton.  Back in St Lucie, and now 22, he has been up 15 times....6 hits and 3 walks...and zero Ks.  WOW!  And 3 of those hits are doubles.

And before I go, Matt Winaker smacked a AA grand slam, to tie Pete Alonso with one, and JT Schwartz had a single, double and HR for Brooklyn the other night.  JT wants Pete's job, at least that is what I'm guessing.  He'll also take JD Davis' or DJ Lemahieu's job if someone offers it.  It only comes down to having the right initials, at the end of the day, at least that's what J.R. Ewing told me.  

B.J. Upton retired too soon for JT Schwartz, unfortunately.  But my initial impressions of JT are good.  Go, JT, go.

LASTLY:

19 year old Alex Ramirez, who was very impressive last year at age 18, has started the season 12 for 21 with St. Lucie.  Another incredible young dude, and my guess, a soon-coming future Mets' outfield star.  Is 2023 too soon?